000 WTPZ43 KNHC 242031 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082008 200 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2008 GENEVIEVE HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION TODAY...THOUGH THE COLD CLOUD TOPS COVER A SMALL AREA AND ARE ASYMMETRICALLY DISTRIBUTED. WHILE DVORAK CI NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM TAFB AND SAB...A 1553Z SSMIS PASS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT A RAGGED EYE MAY BE FORMING. AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM A 1258Z PASS WERE ABOUT 50 KT FROM THE CIMSS AND CIRA TECHNIQUES. AN ASCAT PASS AT 1642Z DID NOT SHOW ANY GALE FORCE WINDS...THOUGH THIS INSTRUMENT MAY HAVE PROBLEMS IN DISCERNING STRONG WINDS WITH A SMALL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY TO 50 KT. GENEVIEVE HAS SLOWED DOWN TO 6 KT AT A 280 DEGREES HEADING. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CORRECTED CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...MINUS THE GFS AT THE EXTENDED RANGE. GENEVIEVE LIKELY HAS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IN THE NEXT DAY TO FURTHER STRENTHEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS MARGINALLY WARM WATERS...LOW VERTICAL SHEAR...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY THE CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. BEGINNING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...GENEVIEVE SHOULD BE ADVERSELY IMPACTED BY COOLER WATERS...A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND LGEM MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WHILE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT GO ABOVE 55 KT...THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF GENEVIEVE BECOMING A HURRICANE BASED UPON OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ERROR STATISTICS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/2100Z 15.4N 112.9W 50 KT 12HR VT 25/0600Z 15.5N 114.0W 55 KT 24HR VT 25/1800Z 15.7N 115.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 26/0600Z 16.1N 117.8W 55 KT 48HR VT 26/1800Z 16.7N 119.8W 50 KT 72HR VT 27/1800Z 17.5N 124.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 28/1800Z 18.0N 128.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 29/1800Z 18.5N 132.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA