000 WTPZ43 KNHC 241439 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082008 800 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2008 GENEVIEVE...SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY...IS CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE OVER THE OPEN NORTHEAST PACIFIC. DEEP CONVECTION COVERS ONLY A SMALL REGION OVER THE CYCLONE AND REMAINS ASYMMETRIC IN ITS DISTRIBUTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE DROPPED SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL INDICATE A CURRENT INTENSITY OF ABOUT 45 KT. A 0905Z AMSU PASS SUGGESTED WINDS OF 48 KT FROM THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT 45 KT. GENEVIEVE IS MOVING AT 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT...BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE 12Z DVORAK POSITION ESTIMATES AND A 0936Z AMSR MICROWAVE PASS. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS MORE PROBLEMATIC. THE CYCLONE IS OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS...LOW VERTICAL SHEAR...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY THE CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GENEVIEVE. MOREOVER...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED PAST THE REGION OF OCEAN COOLING INDUCED BY HURRICANE FAUSTO. IN THE SHORT-TERM...INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED IN AGREEMENT PRIMARILY WITH THE GFDL MODEL. FROM 48 HOURS ONWARD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS...A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS THEN ANTICIPATED BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND LGEM MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITY HAS A PEAK SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 15.3N 112.7W 45 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 15.4N 114.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 15.6N 115.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 26/0000Z 15.9N 117.4W 55 KT 48HR VT 26/1200Z 16.4N 119.3W 50 KT 72HR VT 27/1200Z 17.5N 123.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 28/1200Z 18.5N 127.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 29/1200Z 19.0N 130.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA