000
WTPZ43 KNHC 240853
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008
200 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2008
 
GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A RATHER DISHEVELED APPEARANCE IN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A SOMEWHAT REMOVED BAND TO THE
SOUTHWEST. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE COLD WAKE LEFT BY FAUSTO HAS
TAKEN ITS TOLL ON GENEVIEVE...FOR NOW.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT GENEVIEVE HAS
WEAKENED TO 45 KT.  GENEVIEVE IS GRADUALLY MOVING OVER WARMER SSTS
AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
DAYS.  ACCORDINGLY...SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE
SHORT-TERM.  EVEN THOUGH THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST PEAKS JUST BELOW
HURRICANE INTENSITY AT 36 HOURS...THE INTENSITY PROBABILITIES
INCLUDED IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE INDICATE A 30% CHANCE OF
GENEVIEVE BEING A HURRICANE AT THAT TIME.  IN ABOUT 2 DAYS...
INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER WATER ARE EXPECTED TO BRING ABOUT
WEAKENING FOR GOOD.
 
GENEVIEVE CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 9 KT.  WITH A MIDDLE TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
HEADING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST.  TRACK MODELS
SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED AND THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0900Z 15.1N 112.0W    45 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 15.2N 113.2W    50 KT
 24HR VT     25/0600Z 15.4N 114.7W    55 KT
 36HR VT     25/1800Z 15.8N 116.5W    60 KT
 48HR VT     26/0600Z 16.2N 118.4W    55 KT
 72HR VT     27/0600Z 17.5N 122.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     28/0600Z 18.5N 126.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     29/0600Z 19.5N 129.5W    25 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME