000
WTPZ43 KNHC 232033
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008
200 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2008
 
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT GENEVIEVE HAS BEEN
STRUGGLING SOME TODAY.  CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING AND THE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN
ERODING...POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR UNDERCUTTING
THE DIFFLUENT EASTERLIES ALOFT.  ADDITIONALLY...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
TRAVERSING OVER A WAKE OF LESS THAN 25C ANOMALOUSLY COOL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES CREATED BY HURRICANE FAUSTO.  DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALSO SUPPORT A WEAKENING...THEREFORE THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWER TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS WHICH
SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS.  BEYOND
THAT...INCREASING NORTHERLY SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. 
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE SHIPS SUGGESTS THAT GENEVIEVE BASICALLY
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS BEFORE
COMMENCING A WEAKENING.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/8...WITHIN THE MID-LAYER EASTERLY
FLOW OF RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  NO SIGNIFICANT TRACK CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH GENEVIEVE GRADUALLY MOVING MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME TOWARD A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS USED AS A
BASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 15.0N 110.1W    50 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 15.1N 111.3W    55 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 15.3N 112.8W    60 KT
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 15.5N 114.3W    65 KT
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 15.8N 115.9W    60 KT
 72HR VT     26/1800Z 16.5N 119.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     27/1800Z 17.5N 122.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     28/1800Z 19.0N 126.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA