000
WTPZ43 KNHC 222048
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2008
 
GENEVIEVE HAS NOT IMPROVED IN ORGANIZATION APPRECIABLY OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE NOT
CHANGED AND THE ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS AROUND 50 KT.  THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.

A 1437Z SSMIS PASS AND THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
THE POSITION INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY MAY HAVE BEEN
SOMEWHAT TOO FAR TO THE NORTH.  THE CURRENT MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLIES
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE TAKES GENEVIEVE DUE WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFDL...
UKMET...ECMWF...AND NOGAPS MODELS AND IT IS FASTER THAN...AND SOUTH
OF...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

GENEVIEVE IS STILL BEING ADVERSELY IMPACTED BY MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  THIS SHEAR IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS
AND SURROUNDED BY ABUNDANT MOISTURE.  AT DAYS 3 TO 5...THE SHEAR
SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN WHILE THE OCEAN TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOL
UNDER THE CYCLONE.  THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/2100Z 14.3N 107.2W    50 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 14.4N 108.9W    55 KT
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 14.4N 110.7W    65 KT
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 14.3N 112.2W    70 KT
 48HR VT     24/1800Z 14.1N 113.5W    70 KT
 72HR VT     25/1800Z 14.0N 116.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     26/1800Z 14.0N 119.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     27/1800Z 14.0N 122.5W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE