000
WTPZ43 KNHC 221457
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2008
 
GENEVIEVE'S DEEP CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED SOME IN ORGANIZATION
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE HARD EDGE TO THE COLD CLOUD TOPS IN THE
INFRARED IMAGERY IS INDICATIVE OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
IMPINGING UPON THE CYCLONE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE GONE UP TO
3.5 FROM TAFB AND STEADY AT 3.0 FROM SAB. A 1205Z AMSU PASS
INDICATED 51 KT FROM THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KT.

A 1143Z SSMI PASS DID SHOW A DISTINCT CURVED BAND IN THE 37V
IMAGERY...WHICH HELPED TO LOCATE THE CYCLONE'S POSITION.
GENEVIEVE'S TRACK IS 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT. WITH THE CYCLONE WELL
EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP-LAYERED EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...GENEVIEVE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD. THE TRACK MODELS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING AND THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED UPON THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...HWRF...AND UKMET
MODELS. THIS NEW TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
THE WIND SHEAR IMPACTING THE CYCLONE SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT
THREE DAYS.  BECAUSE THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD...THE CYCLONE MAY MISS MOST OF THE WATERS COOLED BY ELIDA
AND FAUSTO.  CONSEQUENTLY...INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE IS NOW
EXPECTED.  AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE SHEAR MAY INCREASE AGAIN AS THE
SSTS GRADUALLY COOL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE AND IS ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 14.7N 106.3W    50 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 14.9N 108.1W    55 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 15.1N 110.2W    60 KT
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 15.1N 112.1W    65 KT
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 15.1N 113.9W    70 KT
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 15.0N 117.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     26/1200Z 15.0N 119.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     27/1200Z 15.0N 123.0W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE