000
WTPZ43 KNHC 211458
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008
800 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2008
 
THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT THE NHC HAS BEEN WATCHING FOR SEVERAL
DAYS HAS FINALLY OBTAINED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THIS SAME SYSTEM
ALMOST BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
AMERICA A FEW DAYS AGO.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF BANDED DEEP CONVECTION FEATURES.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS 30 KT IN LINE WITH QUIKSCAT ESTIMATES.  A SLOW
INCREASE IN WINDS IS INDICATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO
MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY A
LITTLE FASTER THEREAFTER AND HAS A GOOD CHANCE TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER THE COOLER WATERS IN 4 DAYS OR SO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.
HWRF/GFDL DO NOT INTENSIFY THIS SYSTEM ON THEIR CURRENT INTEGRATION
BUT HAVE INTENSIFIED IT QUITE A BIT BEFOREHAND.
 
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 280/12.  A WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER MEXICO.  FOR THE FIRST ADVISORY...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
THE SYSTEM COULD SLOW A LITTLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS A WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE COULD AFFECT THE DEPRESSION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/1500Z 13.4N 100.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     22/0000Z 13.6N 102.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     22/1200Z 13.9N 104.9W    40 KT
 36HR VT     23/0000Z 14.4N 107.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     23/1200Z 14.9N 108.8W    55 KT
 72HR VT     24/1200Z 15.7N 111.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     25/1200Z 16.6N 114.2W    60 KT
120HR VT     26/1200Z 18.0N 118.0W    55 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE