000
WTPZ43 KNHC 302038
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032008
200 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2008
 
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CRISTINA HAS BEEN
DEVOID OF DEEP CONVENTION FOR CLOSE TO 6 HOURS...AND HAS VIRTUALLY
BECOME A SKELETAL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS.  A 1451 QUIKSCAT OVERPASS
REVEALED 30 KT WINDS WITHIN A THIN RAIN BAND DISPLACED WELL TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  THIS SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION HAS
SINCE DISSIPATED.  GIVEN THE PRESENT TREND IN THE OVERALL CLOUD
PATTERN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  FURTHER WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED AND CRISTINA COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/10.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/2100Z 14.0N 132.2W    25 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 13.8N 133.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 13.5N 135.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA