000
WTPZ43 KNHC 200226
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132007
800 PM PDT WED SEP 19 2007
 
WHAT LITTLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXISTED OVER THE DEPRESSION
EARLIER TODAY HAS DISSIPATED AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW VOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION.  THE CLOCK IS NOW TICKING FOR THIRTEEN-E.  HAVING SAID
THAT...ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE SOUTHWARD
OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS.  IF A SOUTHWARD
TURN WERE TO MATERIALIZE...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEPRESSION TO SURVIVE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
GENEROUSLY MAINTAINS THE CYCLONE AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION THROUGH 48
HOURS FOLLOWED BY DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW.
 
THE LAST FEW FRAMES OF VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEPRESSION IS
SLOWING WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/05. ASSUMING THE
CYCLONE SURVIVES...THE TRACK FORECAST IS RATHER COMPLEX. DYNAMICAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL LIKELY MEANDER OVER
THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. SINCE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS
THE DEPRESSION FOR ANOTHER 2 DAYS...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS
NUDGED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0300Z 17.8N 129.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     20/1200Z 17.9N 130.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     21/0000Z 17.6N 130.6W    30 KT
 36HR VT     21/1200Z 17.2N 130.5W    30 KT
 48HR VT     22/0000Z 17.3N 129.9W    30 KT
 72HR VT     23/0000Z 18.5N 128.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     24/0000Z 20.0N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME