000 WTPZ43 KNHC 021432 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082007 800 AM PDT THU AUG 02 2007 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ERICK HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. IN FACT...VERY FEW NORTHERLY VECTORS IN LAST NIGHT'S QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BE AN OPEN WAVE. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THAT THERE MAY BE A NEW CENTER FORMING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CURRENT POSITION BENEATH A MID- LEVEL CIRCULATION ALONG THE ITCZ. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 2.0 AND 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. ADDITIONALLY...A 0438Z SSMI/S MICROWAVE IMAGE, AND A 0538Z ASCAT OVERPASS INTERPRETATION OF SEVERE VERTICAL DECOUPLING SUPPORT LOWERING THE CYCLONE TO DEPRESSION STRENGTH. BASED ON THE CURRENT CONDITION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING THAT THE 10 TO 15 KT UPPER NORTHERLIES SHOULD PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO REFLECT DEPRESSION STRENGTH THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED PERIOD. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW AS IT PROGRESSES OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER DOES REFORM CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE INITIAL POSITION... RESTRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM COULD OCCUR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 275/9 WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT OF ABOUT 40 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ERICK SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 13.6N 130.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 13.7N 131.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 03/1200Z 13.9N 133.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 04/0000Z 14.2N 135.2W 30 KT 48HR VT 04/1200Z 14.3N 137.3W 30 KT 72HR VT 05/1200Z 14.5N 142.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 06/1200Z 14.5N 145.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 07/1200Z 14.5N 149.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN