000
WTPZ43 KNHC 020233
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082007
800 PM PDT WED AUG 01 2007
 
IT HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF ERICK IN BOTH
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING.  THE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME
ELONGATED AND LESS DEFINED.  HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
CLEARLY EVIDENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF REFORMATION OCCURS IN
THAT AREA. 
 
THE LATEST DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT.  NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
CONTINUES TO INHIBIT STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE SHEAR COULD RELAX DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS...ALLOWING
SOME STRENGTHENING.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE
WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS WHICH SHOULD HALT ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10.  ERICK IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. 
MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO BUT WITH VARYING
FORWARD SPEEDS.  THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS VERY LITTLE MOTION DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER CYCLONE DEVELOPS TO THE EAST OF ERICK. 
THIS SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE UNREALISTIC AT THIS TIME.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
BUT IS SLOWER THAN THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0300Z 13.4N 128.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     02/1200Z 13.6N 130.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     03/0000Z 13.9N 131.7W    40 KT
 36HR VT     03/1200Z 14.1N 133.4W    45 KT
 48HR VT     04/0000Z 14.4N 135.3W    45 KT
 72HR VT     05/0000Z 14.8N 138.8W    45 KT
 96HR VT     06/0000Z 14.9N 142.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     07/0000Z 15.0N 146.0W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN