000
WTPZ43 KNHC 011434
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082007
800 AM PDT WED AUG 01 2007
 
LATEST CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS
INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
ORGANIZATION OR STRUCTURE OF ERICK.  STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION 
LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN AMORPHOUS BLOB OF DEEP
CONVECTION.  THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES IS 35 KT SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED. 
DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GRADUALLY FALLING
AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS LESS THAN IDEAL. 
THEREFORE ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED...AND THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
 
A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES THAT ERICK IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS
275/8. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ERICK IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THEREFORE ERICK SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE NORTH AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN LINE WITH LATEST TRACK MODEL TRENDS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/1500Z 13.2N 126.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 13.3N 127.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 13.5N 129.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 13.7N 130.6W    45 KT
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 13.9N 132.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     04/1200Z 14.0N 136.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     05/1200Z 14.0N 139.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     06/1200Z 14.0N 142.5W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME