000
WTPZ43 KNHC 121438
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032007
800 AM PDT TUE JUN 12 2007
 
INFRARED IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THERE IS VERY LITTLE
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A DENSE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IN THE PATH OF
THE CYCLONE WHICH SUGGESTS A STABLE AIR MASS.  THE SYSTEM WILL SOON
BE MOVING OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 25 DEG C.  GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...WE EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO BE DISSIPATING WITHIN
24 HOURS...OR SOONER IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT MAKE A COMEBACK.

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8 BASED ON CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE
SATELLITE FIXES.  THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS PREDICTED AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...OR ITS
REMNANT LOW...OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/1500Z 18.1N 113.6W    25 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 18.6N 114.7W    25 KT
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 19.0N 116.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 19.0N 117.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     14/1200Z 19.0N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH