000
WTPZ43 KNHC 112032
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032007
200 PM PDT MON JUN 11 2007
 
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUD TOPS OVERALL
HAVE WARMED...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE. 1800
UTC SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE T2.0 OR
30 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL BE HELD AT
30 KT. WHILE THE CYCLONE IS QUICKLY APPROACHING A VERY STABLE
ENVIRONMENT...A SHORT 12-24 HOUR WINDOW EXISTS FOR THE CYCLONE TO
REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE SSTS FALL BELOW 25 DEGREES
CELSIUS.  THEREAFTER...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE LGE...LOGISTIC
GROWTH EQUATION...VERSION OF THE SHIPS MODEL. THIS VERSION MORE
CLOSELY SIMULATES THE CHANGING ENVIRONMENT THAN THE STANDARD
VERSION OF SHIPS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/9.  A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
POSITIONED JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS INFLUENCING THE
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION.  ONCE THE
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND TURN THE CYCLONE MORE TOWARD THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK REASONING IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED...EXCEPT A BIT
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.   


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/2100Z 16.3N 111.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     12/0600Z 17.0N 112.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     12/1800Z 17.6N 114.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     13/0600Z 18.0N 114.9W    30 KT
 48HR VT     13/1800Z 18.2N 116.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     14/1800Z 18.0N 118.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI