980 WTPZ42 KNHC 090252 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Kay Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 08 2022 Based on satellite fixes, the center of Kay is estimated to have moved back over the waters of the east Pacific to the north of Punta Eugenia. Most of the deep convection is occurring over the northern semicircle of the circulation and the cloud tops continue to gradually warm. Using subjective Dvorak Current Intensity numbers, the advisory intensity is set at 55 kt, although this could still be generous. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Kay in a few hours. Steady weakening should occur during the next 48 hours due to passage over progressively cooler ocean waters west of the northern Baja California peninsula. The official intensity forecast is a little below the previous NHC prediction and is in good agreement with the latest statistical/dynamical LGEM model guidance. This is also on the high end of the intensity model suite. The system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in 48 hours, if not sooner. Kay continues to move north-northwestward or around 330/12 kt. A mid-level ridge to the east and northeast of the cyclone should steer it on a north-northwestward to northwestward heading for the next 24 to 36 hours. Thereafter, the weakening and increasingly shallow Kay is expected to turn more westward, and eventually southward to the southeast of a low-level ridge over the eastern Pacific. The official track forecast has been shifted a little south and west of the previous one, toward the latest dynamical model consensus. Although it is weakening, Kay remains a fairly large tropical cyclone. Wind, surf, and rainfall impacts continue to extend far from the center so users should not focus on the exact forecast track. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including landslides, across the Baja California peninsula and portions of mainland northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding is likely across Southern California beginning Friday, especially in and near the peninsular ranges. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible beginning Friday in Southwest Arizona. 3. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the Baja California peninsula, and these conditions should continue to spread northward during the next day or so, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 4. Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are expected across portions of southern California and extreme southwestern Arizona beginning on Friday. For information on this wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 28.4N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 29.8N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 30.9N 117.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 31.4N 119.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 31.5N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 11/1200Z 31.0N 121.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0000Z 30.4N 121.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0000Z 29.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0000Z 28.5N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch