000 WTPZ42 KNHC 082053 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022 Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that Kay continues to weaken. The aircraft did not find winds supporting hurricane intensity in the part of the storm it sampled, and it reported that the central pressure has risen to 982 mb. However, the plane was not able to sample the area of convection just northeast of the center where the strongest winds were likely occurring. The initial intensity is reduced to 65 kt on the premise that those winds still exist in the northeastern quadrant. However, this could be generous. The core of Kay will be crossing portions of Baja California near Punta Eugenia during the next few hours, and then move back over the cold water of the Pacific. This combination should cause additional weakening. Kay is expected to weaken to a tropical storm during the next few hours, and the cyclone is forecast to lose its convection in about 48-60 h at roughly the same time the winds drop below 35 kt. After that, the cyclone should quickly decay to a remnant area of low pressure. Kay continues to move north-northwestward or 335/12 kt. There is again no change to the previous track forecast philosophy. A mid-level ridge to the east of Kay should steer it on a north-northwestward heading during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, a weaker and more vertically shallow Kay is expected to turn more westward, and eventually southward to the southeast of a low-level ridge over the eastern Pacific. The new track forecast again has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. Recent scatterometer and dropsonde data indicate that Kay remains a very large tropical cyclone, with a large area of tropical-storm- force winds over the Gulf of California. It is also producing an extensive area of high seas, with swells affecting portions of southwestern Mexico, the Gulf of California, and the Baja California peninsula. Although Kay is forecast to weaken, high wind, surf, and rainfall impacts will continue to extend far from the center so users should not focus on the exact forecast track. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including landslides, across the Baja California peninsula and portions of mainland northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding is likely across Southern California beginning Friday, especially in and near the peninsular ranges. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible beginning Friday in Southwest Arizona. 2. Hurricane conditions are occuring over portion of the central Baja California Peninsula and should continue for a few more hours. 3. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the Baja California peninsula, and these conditions are expected to spread northward during the next day or so, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 4. Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are expected across portions of southern California and extreme southwestern Arizona beginning on Friday. For information on this wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 27.1N 114.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...ON COAST 12H 09/0600Z 28.7N 115.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 30.4N 116.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 31.3N 118.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 31.7N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 31.7N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/1800Z 31.0N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1800Z 29.5N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1800Z 28.5N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven