000 WTPZ42 KNHC 081443 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022 Kay continues to lose organization in satellite imagery, as there is no longer an eye present and the central convection continues to decrease. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in the 65-77 kt range, and based on this the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 75 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Kay. Kay is now over 23C sea surface temperatures and will be traversing progressively cooler SSTs over the next couple of days. That, along with land interaction and a gradually drying mid-level air mass, is expected to cause gradual weakening over the next couple of days. However, Kay is forecast to remain a hurricane when it passes near or over the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula in about 12 h, and remain a tropical storm as it passes just west of the northwestern portion of the peninsula on Friday. The cyclone is expected to lose its convection and become post-tropical between 48-60 h, and then decay to a remnant low pressure area by 72 h. Kay continues to move north-northwestward or 345/13 kt. There is no change to the previous track forecast philosophy. A mid-level ridge to the east of Kay should steer it on a north-northwestward heading during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, a weaker and more vertically shallow Kay is expected to turn more westward, and eventually southward to the southeast of a low-level ridge over the eastern Pacific. The track guidance has changed little since the last advisory, so the new track forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. Kay remains a very large tropical cyclone. It is producing an extensive area of high seas, with swells affecting portions of southwestern Mexico, the Gulf of California, and the Baja California peninsula. Although Kay is likely to weaken before it makes landfall or moves very close to the west-central coast of the Baja peninsula, it is forecast to remain a large and dangerous hurricane through that time. In addition, high wind, surf, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center so users should not focus on the exact forecast track. KEY MESSAGES: 1. As the center of Kay passes just offshore, heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including landslides, across the Baja California peninsula and portions of mainland northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding is likely across Southern California beginning Friday, especially in and near the peninsular ranges. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible beginning Friday in Southwest Arizona. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the west-central Baja California coast later this morning through this evening, and a hurricane warning is in effect for that area. 3. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the Baja California peninsula, and these conditions are expected to spread northward during the next day or so, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 25.8N 113.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 27.6N 114.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1200Z 29.6N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 10/0000Z 30.9N 117.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 31.5N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 31.7N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 11/1200Z 31.3N 120.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1200Z 30.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z 28.5N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven