566 WTPZ42 KNHC 080247 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022 Kay is still exhibiting a ragged-looking eye on enhanced infrared imagery, but the surrounding cloud tops have been warming significantly. The overall cloud pattern is becoming less organized with some elongation from south to north. Upper-level outflow is restricted over the western portion of the circulation. Dvorak T-numbers are decreasing and the current intensity estimate is lowered to 80 kt for this advisory, which is a compromise between subjective Dvorak T and CI numbers. The earlier Hurricane Hunter mission suggested that the satellite-estimated intensities were probably a little on the high side. Although the vertical wind shear is not forecast to increase much during the next couple of days, SSTs beneath Kay will be steadily cooling along with a gradual drying of the mid-level air mass. These environmental factors should lead to continued weakening during the forecast period. The official intensity forecast calls for a little faster rate of weakening than the previous NHC prediction, but is generally above the model guidance. Kay should weaken even faster than shown here if the center tracks over a portion of the Baja California land mass. The hurricane is moving north-northwestward, or at about 345/12 kt. A mid-level ridge to the east and northeast of the tropical cyclone is likely to maintain the north-northwestward track for a couple of days. Thereafter, the weakening and increasingly shallow Kay is forecast to turn more westward, and eventually southward, away from land as it becomes steered by the flow on the south and east side of a low-level ridge over the northeastern Pacific. The official track forecast is shifted slightly east and north of the previous NHC prediction and is very close to the latest corrected dynamical model consensus. Kay is a very large tropical cyclone. It is producing an extensive area of high seas, with swells affecting portions of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula. Although Kay is likely to weaken before it makes landfall or moves very close to the west-central coast of the Baja peninsula, it is forecast to remain a large and dangerous hurricane through that time. In addition, high wind, surf, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center so users should not focus on the exact forecast track. KEY MESSAGES: 1. As the center of Kay passes near or over the Baja California peninsula, heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including landslides, across the Baja California peninsula and portions of mainland northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible across Southern California, especially in and near the peninsular ranges, and Southwest Arizona, Friday night into Saturday. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the west-central Baja California coast on Thursday and Thursday night, and a hurricane warning is in effect for that area. 3. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the Baja California peninsula, and these conditions are expected to spread northward during the next day or so, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 23.2N 113.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 25.1N 113.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 27.5N 114.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 29.5N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 30.9N 117.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 31.6N 119.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 31.5N 119.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0000Z 30.5N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0000Z 29.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch