000 WTPZ42 KNHC 071510 CCA TCDEP2 Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 13...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022 Corrected first Key Message Kay appears to be on a strengthening trend. Satellite images indicate that the hurricane has a large eye, with a diameter of about 25 n mi, and a nearly symmetric eyewall. There are some dry slots between the eyewall and rainbands, however. The subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to T5.0/90 kt, and the initial intensity is raised to 90 kt based on that data. This intensity estimate is below the latest ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, so it is possible that Kay could be a little stronger. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate Kay this afternoon, and the data the plane collects will be very helpful in assessing the intensity and structure of the hurricane. Kay will likely strengthen a little more, and it could become a major hurricane while it remains in conducive environmental conditions today. However, by early tomorrow, the hurricane is expected to move over sub 26 C SSTs and move over progressively cooler waters during the following few days. The cooler SSTs and drier air should cause a steady weakening trend later this week and this weekend. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one in the short term, and lies at the high end of the guidance during the first few days of the forecast. The hurricane is moving north-northwestward, and that motion should continue for the next couple of days taking the core of Kay very near or over the west-central Baja California peninsula on Thursday and Friday. After that time, when Kay moves close to northern Baja, a turn to the left is expected as the shallow system becomes steered by the flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. The model guidance is in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is essentially the same as the previous one and close to the various consensus models. Kay is a very large tropical cyclone. It is producing an extensive area of high seas, with swells affecting portions of southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula. Although Kay is likely to weaken before it makes landfall or moves very close to the west-central coast of the Baja peninsula, it is forecast to remain a large and dangerous hurricane through that time. In addition, high wind, surf, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center so users should not focus on the exact forecast track. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including landslides, across the Baja California peninsula and portions of mainland northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning. Flash and urban flooding is possible across the peninsular ranges of southern California and southwestern Arizona Friday night into Saturday. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the west-central Baja California coast on Thursday and Thursday night, and a hurricane warning is in effect for that area. 3. Tropical storm conditions are beginning over portions of the Baja California peninsula, and these conditions are expected to spread northward during the next day or so, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 21.1N 112.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 22.7N 113.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 24.9N 114.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 27.2N 115.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 28.9N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 30.2N 117.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 30.9N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 30.9N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1200Z 29.4N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi