000 WTPZ42 KNHC 070243 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 06 2022 Kay looks slightly better organized on satellite imagery with a broad eye-like feature surrounded by curved bands of strong convection. Upper-level outflow is strong over all but the northwestern portion of the circulation. The current intensity is bumped up slightly to 80 kt which is a compromise between highly varied subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. It should be noted there is a greater than usual amount of uncertainty in the advisory intensity. Vertical wind shear on Kay is forecast to be low, and the system is expected to remain in a fairly moist mid-level air mass for the next few days. These factors should lead to further short-term strengthening. However, SSTs will be decreasing significantly in 24 to 36 hours, which will likely result in a weakening trend commencing on Thursday. Later in the forecast period, very cool waters should result in Kay becoming a post-tropical cyclone after it passes near the northern Baja California in around 96 hours. This is consistent with simulated satellite imagery from the global models that show little or no associated deep convection around that time. The official intensity forecast is above the guidance models, especially for the first half of the forecast period. Kay continues northwestward, moving at about 320/11 kt. There is little change to the track forecast reasoning. A ridge to the northeast of the cyclone is expected to result in a mostly north-northwestward motion for the next few days. This should bring the core of the of Kay very near the west-central Baja California coast on Thursday and Friday. Later in the forecast period, low-level ridging is expected to cause the weakening cyclone to turn westward. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and also close to the corrected multi-model consensus. Kay is a very large tropical cyclone. It is producing an extensive area of high seas, with swells affecting portions of southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula. Although Kay is likely to weaken before it makes its closest approach to the west-central coast of the Baja peninsula, it is forecast to remain a large and dangerous hurricane through that time. In addition, high wind, surf, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center so users should not focus on the exact forecast track. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall from Kay could lead to flash flooding, including landslides, across portions of the Baja California peninsula and mainland northwestern Mexico through Friday. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the Baja California peninsula beginning Wednesday morning, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Hurricane conditions are possible along portions of the west-central Baja California coast on Thursday, where a hurricane watch has been issued. Additional tropical storm watches and warnings for the northern Baja California peninsula could be required later tonight and Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 19.5N 111.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 20.6N 112.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 22.5N 113.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 24.7N 114.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 26.8N 115.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 28.5N 116.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 30.0N 117.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 31.1N 120.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 12/0000Z 30.8N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch