000 WTPZ42 KNHC 062045 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 06 2022 Kay continues to be relatively steady in strength. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters so far have found peak flight-level winds of 75 kt, and the initial intensity is held at 75 kt pending the completion of the reconnaissance mission. The minimum pressure is estimated to be 978 mb based on the aircraft data. The center of Kay is currently over Socorro Island, and the island is about to experience strong winds on the system's east side. The aircraft data and a recent ASCAT-B pass indicate that Kay is a large hurricane, with its tropical-storm- force winds extending outward about 200 miles from the center. Kay is also producing a large area of high seas, with swells currently affecting portions of southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula. Kay is moving northwestward and it continues moving along the previous forecast track. A northwest to north-northwest motion is expected during the next few days, which will likely bring the core of Kay very near the west-central Baja California coast on Thursday and Friday. After that time, a turn to the left is predicted when the system is steered by a low- to mid-level ridge over the western United States. The GFS has shifted a bit to the right this cycle, but the other models have generally held steady. Little change was made to the previous NHC track forecast and this one lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. The hurricane is still feeling some effects from moderate northerly vertical wind shear, but the models suggest that the shear should decrease during the next day or so. The anticipated more conducive upper-level wind pattern combined with warm SSTs and a moist environment should allow Kay to strengthen during the next 24-36 hours, and it could become a major hurricane during that time. Thereafter, sharply cooler SSTs and drier air should end the opportunity for strengthening and induce steady weakening. Kay is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in 4 to 5 days when it is forecast to be over quite cool SSTs of 21-22 C. The NHC intensity forecast is near or a little above the high end of the guidance, especially during the first 36-48 hours. Although Kay is likely to weaken before it makes its closest approach to the west-central coast of the Baja peninsula, it is forecast to remain a large and dangerous hurricane through that time. In addition, high wind, surf, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center so users should not focus on the exact forecast track. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall from Kay could lead to flash flooding, including landslides, across portions of the Baja California peninsula through Friday. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the Baja California peninsula beginning Wednesday morning, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Hurricane conditions are possible along portions of the west-central Baja California coast on Thursday, where a hurricane watch has been issued. Additional tropical storm watches and warnings for the northern Baja California peninsula could be required tonight and Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 18.8N 111.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 19.8N 112.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 21.6N 113.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 23.6N 113.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 25.9N 114.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 27.8N 115.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 29.3N 117.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 30.7N 119.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 30.5N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi