000 WTPZ42 KNHC 060848 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 300 AM MDT Tue Sep 06 2022 The satellite presentation of Kay has improved within the past couple of hours. A curved band with cloud top temperatures below -85C has wrapped around the center and has formed a ragged banding-type eye in infrared imagery. The latest subjective and objective Dvorak satellite estimates are all around 65 kt, but with the earlier reconnaissance data supporting a higher intensity and the recent improvement in structure, the initial intensity has been raised to 75 kt. Another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Kay this afternoon. The much-anticipated northwestward turn appears to have occurred, and the initial motion estimate is now 310/11 kt. Kay is forecast to move on a northwestward heading during the next 24 to 36 hours around a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. After that time, the hurricane is forecast to turn north-northwestward, bringing the core near the west-central coast of the Baja peninsula in 60-72 hours. Some of the dynamical track models including the HWRF, GFS and GFS ensemble mean, have made a noticeable eastward shift over the past few cycles, while the ECMWF has changed little. The updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly east of the previous advisory out of respect for the aforementioned models, but it is not quite as far east as the latest GFS, GFS ensemble mean or HFIP corrected consensus. The forecast is a blend of the ECMWF and GFS and is just east of the simple consensus aids. Kay's outflow remains somewhat constricted over the northeastern quadrant due to moderate northeasterly shear. However, the shear is forecast to relax over the next 24 to 36 hours, and given the recent improvement in organization, additional strengthening is expected during that time. The NHC forecast has been raised from the previous advisory and is near the upper-end of the guidance in best agreement with the SHIPS model. After 36 hours, Kay will be moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures and weakening should begin. Although Kay is likely to weaken before it makes its closest approach to the west-central coast of the Baja peninsula, it is forecast to remain a large and strong hurricane at that time. In addition, winds and rainfall impacts will extend far form the center so users should not focus on the exact forecast track. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the southern portions of the Baja California peninsula. Additional tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings could be necessary for portions of Baja California later today. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall from Kay could lead to flash flooding, including landslides, across portions of western Mexico, including the Baja California peninsula, through Thursday night. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the southern Baja California peninsula beginning Wednesday morning, where a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect. 3. While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain uncertain, there is increasing risk of significant wind, surf, and rainfall impacts across the central portion of the Baja California peninsula later this week. A tropical storm or hurricane watch could be issued for that region later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 17.0N 108.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 18.0N 110.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 19.4N 111.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 21.1N 113.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 23.1N 113.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 25.1N 114.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 26.8N 115.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 29.6N 117.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 30.3N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown