000 WTPZ42 KNHC 052100 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 300 PM MDT Mon Sep 05 2022 Satellite images indicate that banding features have become better defined during the past several hours. The low-level center is now more embedded in the deep convection, and Kay has strengthened significantly. An ASCAT pass from around 16Z showed peak winds in the 50-55 kt range on the system's east side, and the 18Z Dvorak estimates were both 3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating Kay and the aircraft recently reported a minimum pressure of 981 mb, which is notably lower than previously estimated. The aircraft also measured maximum SFMR and flight-level winds to support increasing the intensity to 70 kt. The storm continues to move westward, but at a slightly slower pace of around 10 kt. The model guidance remains in fairly good agreement that a turn to the west-northwest is likely to begin tonight followed by a northwestward motion by Tuesday night. Although this should take the core of Kay well to the west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, tropical storm conditions are possible there by early Wednesday given its expansive wind field. Kay will likely be very near the west-central portion of the peninsula on Thursday and Friday, and hurricane watches could be required for that region tonight or tomorrow. After that time, a turn to the west seems likely as Kay weakens and is steered by a low- to mid-level ridge building over the southwestern United States. The NHC track forecast is a little to the south of the previous one in the short term, which is based on the initial motion and position, but is otherwise largely unchanged. Steady strengthening is expected to continue during the next couple of days as Kay remains over warm SSTs and embedded in a moist air mass. In addition, the storm is forecast to move into a lower wind shear environment in 36 to 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is near the high end of the model guidance. Beyond a couple of days, however, progressively cooler SSTs and a drier air mass should end the strengthening trend and induce steady weakening. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gusts to tropical-storm-force and rough surf along the coast of southwestern Mexico are expected through Tuesday. In addition, heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including landslides, across portions of the Mexican Riviera and western Mexico through Wednesday night. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the southern Baja California peninsula by early Wednesday, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. 3. While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain uncertain, there is increasing risk of significant wind, surf, and rainfall impacts across the central portion of the Baja California peninsula. A tropical storm or hurricane watch could be issued for that region tonight or Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 15.6N 107.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 16.2N 108.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 17.5N 110.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 18.8N 112.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 20.5N 113.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 22.4N 113.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 24.5N 114.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 27.8N 116.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 29.6N 119.6W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi