000
WTPZ42 KNHC 010233
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Frank Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072022
800 PM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022

The hurricane is continuing to weaken as it moves over colder 
water, and the cloud tops temperatures associated with the cyclone 
are gradually warming.  The various objective and subjective 
satellite intensity estimates have nudged downward, and the initial 
intensity is reduced to 65 kt.

The cyclone will continue to move over colder water, reaching the 
21C sea surface temperature isotherm between 36-48 h.  Thus, steady 
weakening should continue, with Frank becoming a post-tropical 
cyclone between 48-60 h and dissipating completely before 120 h.  
The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the intensity 
guidance and has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast.
 
Frank is still moving northwestward or 320/10 kt, and while it 
sounds like a broken record there is no change to the track 
forecast reasoning.  The cyclone should continue northwestward 
around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge during the next 
couple of days.  Later in the forecast period, the steering 
currents should change some as cyclone should become more 
vertically shallow, and a slower northward motion is expected.  The 
new forecast track is again an update of the previous track and 
follows the consensus models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 20.8N 120.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 22.0N 121.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 23.6N 123.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 25.3N 124.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 26.9N 125.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  03/1200Z 28.8N 126.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/0000Z 30.6N 126.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/0000Z 33.5N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven