000 WTPZ42 KNHC 310838 TCDEP2 Hurricane Frank Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Frank appears to be maintaining its intensity for the time being, with bands of strong convection more prevalent over the southern portion of the circulation and a small CDO feature. The eye has been apparent at times on enhanced infrared imagery, and upper-level outflow remains well-defined. The advisory intensity is held at 80 kt, which is just above the subjective Dvorak estimates and close to the most recent SATCON value from UW-CIMSS. The hurricane is currently over SSTs near 26.5 deg C, and will be traversing cooler waters while moving into a progressively drier and more stable air mass over the next few days. Thus a slow but steady weakening trend is likely to commence today and continue for the remainder of the forecast period. By 72 hours, Frank is projected to be over SSTs near 20 deg C, and should have degenerated into a remnant low. This is consistent with simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF global models that depict practically no remaining deep convection by that time. The official intensity forecast is a little above the latest IVCN and HCCA consensus guidance. Frank continues its northwestward trek and is still moving at about 315/10 kt. Over the next several days, the cyclone should maintain this general motion while moving along the southwestern periphery of a large mid-level ridge, and toward a trough in the vicinity of 130-135 W. Later in the forecast period, the weaker and more shallow system should move generally northward following the low-level flow. The official track forecast is not much different from the previous one and is close to the latest corrected consensus model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 18.7N 118.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 19.7N 119.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 21.2N 121.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 22.7N 122.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 24.4N 123.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 26.0N 125.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 27.8N 126.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/0600Z 31.0N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/0600Z 34.0N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch