000 WTPZ42 KNHC 291437 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 900 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022 In infrared imagery, Frank's appearance has not changed much since the last advisory. While the system shows a large curved convective band that wraps a little more than three-quarters of the way around the center, the central deep convection is a bit ragged, possibly due to dry air entrainment from the northwest. However, recent 37 GHz microwave data shows the cyclone has developed a good low-level structure, with a ring of shallow to moderate convection surrounding a 40 n mi wide developing eye. Satellite intensity estimates have changed little since the previous advisory, so the initial intensity remains 55 kt. Frank will be in an environment of light vertical shear and over sea surface temperatures of 28-29C for the next 36 h, and the inner-core structure seen in the microwave imagery favors a faster rate of strengthening. The one current negative factor is the dry air entrainment that is causing the inner core deep convection to sputter. The intensity forecast assumes strengthening will resume as the deep convection will becomes persistent, and it follows the trend of the intensity guidance in calling for a peak intensity of 90 kt in 36 h. After that time, Frank should move over progressively cooler SSTs, with the system reaching 21C water by 120 h. This should cause steady to rapid weakening, and Frank is forecast to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The initial motion is now 300/10 kt. Frank is moving along the southwest side of the subtropical ridge over northwestern Mexico, and it should move generally northwestward during the forecast period toward a developing break in the ridge west of California. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario and has changed little since the previous advisory. Thus, the new forecast track is an update of the previous forecast. It again should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette are expected to come close enough to one another for some interaction. Frank will be the larger and dominant system during this interaction, and Georgette will have little impact on the track or intensity of Frank. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 14.2N 113.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 15.3N 114.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 16.5N 116.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 17.7N 117.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 18.9N 119.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 20.2N 121.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 21.5N 122.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 24.0N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 26.0N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven