549 WTPZ42 KNHC 290839 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 300 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022 Although there has been an increase in banding over the eastern semicircle of Frank overnight, some entrainment of dry air over the northwestern portion of the circulation appears to have temporarily caused a pause in the recent intensification. Frank's outflow has become better established, and the latest shear analysis from UW/CIMSS shows that the shear has decreased to less than 10 kt. Recent scatterometer data was very helpful in pinpointing the center and it revealed maximum winds of around 45 kt. The ASCAT data also indicated that the wind field has expanded over the eastern semicircle. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 55 and 65 kt, respectively. The advisory intensity has been kept at 55 kt, in line with the TAFB classification and allowing for some undersampling of the ASCAT satellite. Although the vertical shear over Frank has diminished, the lack of an inner core in recent microwave imagery and the fairly large wind field suggest it may take a little more time before the rate of strengthening increases. The SHIPS RI and DTOPS guidance gives about a 50/50 shot of rapid strengthening over the next 24 hours, however the NHC foreast is slightly below that given the above mentioned structure of the storm. The NHC forecast still calls for Frank to become a hurricane later today, and steady strengthening is likely through 36 hours. By 48 hours, Frank will be moving over progressively cooler water and into a more stable environment. This will lead to steady weakening, and Frank is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by day 5. Frank is moving west-northwestward or 295/9 kt. The storm is currently being steered around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge near northwestern Mexico. A weakness is forecast to develop in the ridge over the next couple of days which will cause Frank to turn more poleward. The spread in the dynamical models has continued to decrease and the latest NHC forecast track is near the center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. It again should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette are expected to come close enough to one another for some interaction. Frank will be the larger and dominant system during this interaction, and Georgette will have little impact on the track or intensity of Frank. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 13.6N 112.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 14.4N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 15.5N 115.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 16.8N 117.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 18.0N 118.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 31/1800Z 19.2N 120.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 20.4N 122.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 22.8N 125.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 25.0N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown