000 WTPZ42 KNHC 280838 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 300 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022 Frank remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the center located near the northeastern edge of a large and persistent convective mass. Both the ASCAT B and C instruments once again only caught the outer portion of Frank's circulation and did not provide assistance in determining the intensity or size of the storm's wind field. The latest subjective Dvorak T-numbers from SAB and TAFB remained T3.0, which supports maintaining an initial intensity of 45 kt. The wind shear over Frank has decreased slightly over the past 24 hours, and a more significant reduction in shear is anticipated within the next day or so. The reduction in shear along with SSTs of 28 to 29C should allow Frank to strengthen more quickly beginning later today. By 36 h, the upper-level wind pattern is forecast to become much more favorable and a period of rapid strengthening could occur during that time. The NHC forecast follows the higher HCCA and FSU Superensemble guidance, and is just above the peak intensity predicted by the SHIPS model. After 72 hours, Frank will be moving over cooler waters and into less favorable thermodynamic conditions which is expected to result in steady weakening. Frank continues to move westward at about 10 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory. Frank is forecast to gradually turn west-northwestward to northwestward over the next few days as it nears the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. The track guidance is in better agreement than it has been, but the overall track envelope is slightly more northward which has result in a slight poleward adjustment to the official forecast. It should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette are likely to come close enough to one another to interact. The global models still suggest that Frank will be the larger and dominant system during this interaction, and that Georgette will have only minor impacts on the track and intensity of Frank. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 12.9N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 13.3N 110.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 14.0N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 14.9N 113.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 16.0N 115.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 30/1800Z 17.2N 117.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 31/0600Z 18.5N 119.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 20.7N 122.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 22.7N 125.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown