000 WTPZ42 KNHC 270837 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 400 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022 Frank remains a highly sheared tropical cyclone. Shortwave infrared satellite imagery indicates that the center is exposed well to the northeast of the primary convective mass. This is due to around 25 kt of northeasterly vertical wind shear as indicated by the SHIPS guidance. Recent ASCAT overpasses only caught the far western portion of the circulation and they were not helpful in estimating Frank's initial intensity. Therefore, the initial wind speed remains at 35 kt, which is in agreement with the latest subjective and objective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates. The strong northeasterly shear that is plaguing Frank is not expected to change much today. The global model guidance, however suggests the shear will gradually abate beginning tonight with upper-level conditions becoming more conducive for strengthening in 24 to 36 hours. Given the current structure of the tropical cyclone, it may take some time for the system to take advantage of the more favorable environment. Therefore, the NHC wind speed forecast only calls for gradual strengthening between 24 and 48 hours, with a slightly faster rate of intensification after that time. The NHC forecast is once again on the conservative side and lies between the SHIPS and lower LGEM model guidance. Frank is moving westward at about 8 kt. A subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should continue to steer Frank westward to west-northwestward over the next 48 to 72 hours. After that time, a west-northwestward to northwestward motion is forecast as the cyclone reaches the western periphery of the ridge. The new NHC track forecast is once again close to the multi-model consensus aids and the GFS ensemble mean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 12.2N 104.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 12.4N 106.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 12.7N 108.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 13.1N 110.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 13.6N 112.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 14.4N 114.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 15.2N 115.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 31/0600Z 17.5N 119.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 01/0600Z 19.6N 122.3W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown