000
WTPZ42 KNHC 192034
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022022
300 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022
 
Deep convection has been withering away from the circulation of Blas
this afternoon, and only a few broken convective bands remain to the
north and northeast of the center. The Dvorak classifications
from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin range from
34 to 45 kt. The initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt, near the
low end of the satellite estimates, given the degraded appearance of
the storm this afternoon. Blas is already over cool waters, and
even cooler waters along its future track plus dry and stable air
should cause the system to further decay. The NHC forecast
shows Blas becoming a remnant low in 24 hours, but this could occur
sooner if the current trends continue. The system is forecast to
completely dissipate in a few days.
 
The storm has been moving very slowly and erratically throughout
the day. It is unclear if the center has also reformed a little to
the east this afternoon.  Regardless, the overall motion has been a
northwestward drift. A slow west to west-northwest motion within 
the low-level flow is expected to resume soon and continue until 
dissipation.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/2100Z 19.1N 112.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 19.2N 112.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 19.3N 113.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  21/0600Z 19.4N 114.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/1800Z 19.6N 115.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  22/0600Z 19.9N 116.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi