000
WTPZ42 KNHC 190836
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022022
300 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022
 
Blas remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with deep convection 
restricted to the eastern half of the system's circulation. The 
tropical storm is maintaining its limited convection for the moment 
despite having moved over marginally cool sea surface temperatures 
below 26 deg C. The initial intensity of 40 kt is based on an 
average of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Blas should slowly 
weaken during the next few days as it continues to move through a 
dry and stable surrounding environment and over marginal SSTs. The 
official forecast shows Blas becoming a remnant low in about 36 h 
and dissipating during the middle of the week. 
 
Blas is moving slowly toward the west-northwest (295/4 kt). As the
tropical storm weakens, it should be steered westward by
low-level trade wind flow for the next couple of days. Very little
change was made to NHC official track forecast, which is near the
middle of the global deterministic model forecasts.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0900Z 18.8N 112.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 18.9N 112.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 18.9N 113.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 18.9N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/0600Z 18.9N 116.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  21/1800Z 19.0N 117.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/0600Z 19.0N 118.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky