000
WTPZ42 KNHC 190237
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022022
900 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022

The convection associated with Blas has increased some during the 
past several hours, mostly in a band in the southeasteastern 
quadrant of the storm.  The initial wind speed is kept at 45 kt, on 
the higher side of the recent Dvorak estimates in deference to the 
marginally improved satellite presentation.  A combination of cool 
SSTs, dry mid-level air and decreasing atmospheric instability 
should cause a general weakening of Blas during the next day or two.
The storm is expected to become a tropical depression by Monday and 
degenerate into a remnant area of low pressure by Monday evening. 
No significant changes were made to the last NHC intensity forecast.

Blas has turned more to the west-northwest tonight or 300/4 kt.  
The cyclone should move slowly in that direction overnight and then 
more westward tomorrow in light low-level trades.  Model guidance 
is in very good agreement, and only cosmetic changes were made to 
the previous NHC track foreast. The remnants of Blas should open up 
into a surface trough in 3 or 4 days.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0300Z 18.7N 111.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 18.9N 112.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 18.9N 113.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 18.8N 114.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  21/0000Z 18.8N 115.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  21/1200Z 18.9N 116.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/0000Z 19.0N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake