000
WTPZ42 KNHC 180834
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022022
300 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022
 
Blas' cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate rapidly this
morning.  The conventional satellite imagery and microwave
presentations show what remains of the deep convection is confined
to a small area in the southwest quadrant.  The initial intensity
is lowered to 55 kt and is based on a blend of the various
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates.  However,
this estimate could be a bit generous given the recent METOP-B
scatterometer pass that showed peak winds of 40 to 45 kt.
 
The 20 kt of northeasterly shear weakening Blas is forecast
to decrease during the next 24 hours or so.  By that time,
however, the cyclone should be moving over decreasing sea surface 
temperatures and into a less thermodynamically favorable air mass.  
The global models and the statistical intensity guidance agree with 
Blas degenerating into a remnant low early next week, 
and the NHC forecast follows suit.
 
Blas is likely being steered by the weaker low-level trades and is
moving west-northwestward or 285/5 kt.  This general motion is
forecast to continue until it opens into a trough of low 
pressure around the middle of next week.  The latest NHC track 
forecast is nudged a little to the right of the previous one and 
lies close to the TVCE multi-model consensus.
 
While Blas weakens and moves farther away from the coast of Mexico,
its associated swells that are affecting portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula
should subside by early next week.  These conditions, however, are
likely to cause dangerous surf and rip currents in those areas over
the weekend.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0900Z 17.8N 110.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 18.1N 111.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 18.4N 112.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 18.5N 113.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  20/0600Z 18.5N 114.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  20/1800Z 18.5N 115.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/0600Z 18.7N 116.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/0600Z 19.3N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts