557 
WTPZ42 KNHC 162048
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Blas Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022022
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022
 
Geostationary satellite imagery suggests that the low-level center 
of Blas has become more aligned with the mid-level center and 
closer to the center of the central dense overcast during the last 
6 hours. Despite this improvement, the convection is a little 
shallower in the western semicircle of the hurricane than it was 
this morning. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are 90 
kt and 77 kt, respectively. The latest CIMSS-ADT estimate is 60 kt. 
Taking a blend of the data, the intensity is held at 75 kt for this 
advisory.

Moderate northeasterly shear is expected to continue over Blas 
through the next 36 hours. Blas has another 18 hours or so over 
warm water before it crosses the 26 degree Celsius isotherm. Little 
change in strength is anticipated through tomorrow morning, while 
the cyclone remains over warm ocean temperatures. Steady weakening 
should begin in about 24 hours, and is anticipated to continue 
during the remainder of the forecast period while Blas moves into 
less favorable thermodynamic conditions. The cyclone is forecast to 
degenerate into a remnant low around day 3. The NHC intensity 
prediction is in best agreement with the LGEM model and HFIP 
corrected consensus aid.
 
The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 285/7 kt. A
mid-level ridge to the north of the hurricane should continue to
steer the cyclone west-northwestward with some increase in forward
speed over the next 48-60 hours. After that time, a weaker and more
shallow Blas is likely to turn westward or west-southwestward within
the low-level tradewind flow. The track model guidance is tightly 
clustered, and the latest NHC forecast is near the middle of the 
consensus models. The new NHC track forecast is once again faster 
than the previous advisory.
 
While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are affecting portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and are expected to spread to portions of the
southern Baja California peninsula by late Friday. These swells are
likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions in those
areas through the weekend.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/2100Z 16.2N 105.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 16.9N 107.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 17.8N 109.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 18.3N 111.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 18.7N 113.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  19/0600Z 19.0N 114.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 18.8N 115.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/1800Z 18.3N 117.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/1800Z 18.2N 119.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown