862 
WTPZ42 KNHC 140831
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022022
400 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022
 
Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system that NHC has
been monitoring off the coast of southwestern Mexico has now become
a tropical depression. Deep convection started to consolidate near
the center around 00Z, and it has increased and expanded since then.
In addition, the circulation appears better defined and
sufficiently meets the criteria needed for a tropical cyclone. The
initial intensity is set at 30 kt, which is a little lower than the
latest Dvorak estimates.
 
The depression is currently located a couple of hundred miles south 
of the coast of southwestern Mexico and it is drifting 
north-northwestward at 3 kt. This slow and likely erratic motion is 
expected to continue for another 24 hours as the steering currents 
remain weak, and the system is expected to remain close to, but 
offshore of, the southwestern coast of Mexico during that time.  
After that, however, a turn to the west-northwest with an increase 
in forward speed is expected as a mid-level ridge builds to the 
north of the cyclone. This motion should take the system gradually 
away from southwestern Mexico later in the week. Although there is 
some spread in the models, especially in terms of forward 
speed, they generally agree on the overall scenario. This track 
forecast lies near the various consensus aids.
 
The depression appears to be strengthening now, and this
intensification trend will likely continue for about 36 hours as
the system remains over warm water and in an environment of low to
moderate shear and high moisture. After that time, however, the
intensification rate is expected to slow due to an increase in
easterly shear, and gradual weakening is anticipated to commence
around day 3 when the system moves into strong shear and heads
toward progressively cooler waters.  The NHC intensity forecast
lies at the high end of the models in the short term, but falls
near the middle of the guidance envelope between 48 and 120 h.

Even though the system is forecast to remain well off the coast of 
Mexico, the associated swells are expected to affect portions of 
the coast of southwestern Mexico in a day or so.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0900Z 13.6N 102.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 13.9N 102.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 14.3N 102.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 14.6N 103.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 15.1N 104.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  16/1800Z 15.5N 105.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  17/0600Z 16.1N 107.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  18/0600Z 17.4N 111.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  19/0600Z 18.4N 113.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi