000 WTPZ42 KNHC 182019 TCDEP2 Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020 Genevieve remains an impressive hurricane. Geostationary satellite and microwave images show a well organized inner core with a nearly circular eye and pronounced outer bands in most quadrants. However, just recently, there has been evidence of a few dry slots forming between the inner core and outer bands. An average of the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates supports holding the initial intensity steady at 115 kt. The hurricane still has another day or so over warm SSTs and in favorable atmospheric conditions, so Genevieve should maintain its intensity or perhaps strengthen a little during that time period. After that time, however, progressively cooler waters, drier air, and an increase in wind shear should cause a rapid decay of the cyclone. Genevieve will likely become post-tropical in 4 to 5 days when it is expected to be over SSTs of 22-23 C. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the guidance for the first day or so, and then falls in line with the various consensus aids after that. Genevieve is moving a little slower to the northwest, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 310/10 kt. A slightly slower northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so, taking the core of the hurricane just west of the southern Baja California peninsula during that time. The models have shifted to the right this cycle, closer to the Baja coast, and the NHC forecast follows this trend. Thereafter, a building mid-level ridge should cause Genevieve to turn slightly to the left, away from the Baja coast. Due to the eastward shift in the track forecast, the government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning and Watch northward on the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. Key Messages: 1. The center of Genevieve is forecast to move just west of the Baja California peninsula, but it is still expected to cause tropical storm conditions across portions of southern Baja California Sur. These conditions are expected to begin Wednesday afternoon and could spread northwestward through Thursday. 2. Large swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico and will spread northward along the coast of Mexico to the Baja California peninsula by Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 18.7N 108.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 19.7N 109.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 20.9N 110.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 21.8N 111.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 22.7N 112.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 23.4N 113.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 24.4N 115.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 26.6N 118.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 28.9N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi