000
WTPZ42 KNHC 190238
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172017
900 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Norma's cloud pattern consists of a tight circulation with some
shapeless clusters of deep convection to the east of the center.
Dvorak T-numbers are decreasing and the initial intensity has
been lowered to 35 kt.  The circulation is already moving over
cooler water, so the weakening process should continue.  Norma
will likely become a remnant low in about 36 hours or even sooner.

The initial motion appears to be toward the west-northwest or 290
degrees at 6 kt.  Most of the track models move the cyclone or its
remnants to the northwest and north around a subtropical ridge over
Mexico until dissipation.  The NHC forecast follows the guidance and
is in the middle of the track model envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 21.7N 113.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 21.8N 114.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 22.2N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 23.0N 116.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila