000
WTPZ42 KNHC 120839
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122017
300 AM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Jova has a disorganized appearance in satellite imagery at this
time, with the primary convection displaced to the southwest of the
center by 15-25 kt of northeasterly vertical wind shear.  Two recent
scatterometer overpasses show winds near 35 kt mainly in the
southeast quadrant, so that remains the initial intensity.  The
initial radii of 34-kt winds and 12-ft seas have been revised on
the basis of the scatterometer data.

The initial motion is 285/10.  A mid-level ridge building westward
across the eastern Pacific should cause Jova to turn westward by
24 h, and that general motion should continue until dissipation.
The track guidance remains in good agreement with this scenario, and
the new forecast track is an update of the previous track.

Jova should remain over warm sea surface temperatures for the next
24-36 h.  However, continued northeasterly shear should limit
intensification during that time.  After that, the cyclone should
start to decay as it moves over decreasing sea surface temperatures.
The new intensity forecast is revised to keep the system as a
tropical cyclone through 48 h and then have the remnant low last
through 96 h in agreement with large-scale model guidance. Other
than that, the new intensity forecast is only slightly changed from
the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 19.3N 110.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 19.7N 112.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 19.9N 114.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  13/1800Z 20.0N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  14/0600Z 20.2N 119.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  15/0600Z 20.5N 124.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  16/0600Z 20.5N 129.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven