000 WTPZ42 KNHC 252049 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Greg Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072017 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Greg is only producing patchy deep convection, and its center is becoming increasingly difficult to locate. Subjective and objective Dvorak CI numbers have all fallen below 2.5, and Greg is therefore downgraded to a 30-kt depression. Southerly shear continues to increase over the cyclone due to a sharp upper-level shear axis located to its southwest, and that shear is expected to increase further and turn out of the northwest during the next 48 hours. In addition, Greg is moving into a drier, more stable air mass, and over increasingly cooler waters. Therefore, continued weakening is expected, and Greg could also end up losing all organized deep convection by 36 hours. The NHC forecast calls for Greg to degenerate into a remnant low at that time, but it could certainly occur sooner. The remnant low is likely to open up into a trough by day 5. Greg is moving west-northwestward, or 295/10 kt. Low- to mid-level troughing north of the depression should maintain a northwestward or west-northwestward motion for the next 24 hours. After that time, the remnant low should turn westward and then west- southwestward, steered by the low-level trade winds. The spread in the track models continues to be speed related (bounded by the slower GFS and faster ECMWF), and the NHC track forecast lies close to the various consensus models. This updated forecast is a little faster than the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 16.2N 137.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 16.9N 138.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 17.6N 140.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 17.8N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1800Z 17.7N 143.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1800Z 16.9N 146.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1800Z 16.0N 149.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg