000 WTPZ42 KNHC 190858 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072017 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017 The increased convective organization of Greg proved to be short-lived. Although the SHIPS-analyzed shear remains low, the cloud pattern now resembles that of a sheared tropical cyclone. A 0458 UTC ASCAT-B overpass caught the eastern half of the circulation, showing no winds above 30 kt, while Dvorak-based estimates of the current intensity range from 45 to 57 kt. The initial intensity has only been lowered to 40 kt since the ASCAT pass missed the western half of the circulation, but this could be generous. Based on the aforementioned ASCAT pass, the analyzed center of the tropical storm has been shifted farther south, and the overall track forecast nudged southward accordingly. While the reasoning behind the forecast is unchanged, the model spread is still fairly high, and run-to-run consistency is low. For instance, the 120-h forecast points from the 18Z and 00Z GFS model differ by nearly 300 nmi. The CMC, ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET global models still show Greg and TD Eight-E interacting to various degrees, with each cyclone beginning to affect the others track in about 36 hours. This interaction should ultimately cause Greg to accelerate toward the west-northwest. After about 72 hours it is still assumed that Greg will be the dominant cyclone, so only a slight turn back toward the west-southwest is forecast. If TD Eight-E instead becomes dominant, then a more pronounced southern turn would be expected. Although the initial intensity is a little lower than the previous advisory, most of the guidance still suggests that Greg will gradually strengthen within a warm-SST, high-moisture, low-shear environment for the next 24-36 hours. Thus little change has been made to the intensity forecast, which remains near the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. If TD Eight-E becomes the dominant cyclone, an alternate scenario is that Greg will dissipate much sooner than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 14.3N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 14.4N 112.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 14.8N 114.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 15.4N 116.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 16.0N 118.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 16.9N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 15.8N 129.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 15.0N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky