000
WTPZ42 KNHC 180252
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017
900 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Although the center of circulation appears to have separated from
the cloud canopy a little more this evening, satellite imagery shows
very little change in the disorganized cloud pattern of the
depression.  A compromise of Dvorak satellite intensity estimates
from both TAFB and SAB again support holding an intensity of 30 kt
for this advisory.  The strong west-northwesterly shear is forecast
to decrease somewhat during the next 24 to 36 hours which should
allow the cyclone to intensify a little.  The large-scale models and
the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance show the vertical shear
returning around the 72-hour period, in addition to the depression
moving over cooler water.  Subsequently, the official forecast
reflects the aforementioned environmental changes and indicates a
gradual spin-down into a remnant low beyond the 48-hour period.

The initial motion is estimated to be 280/8 kt, similar to the
previous package. The depression is forecast to move westward to
west-northwestward to the south of an anchored mid-level ridge that
stretches westward from northwestern Mexico.  The global and
regional models are in quite good agreement through day 3.
Afterward, there is some increasing spread between the majority of
the guidance and the HWRF.  The HWRF is indicating some
involvement with the disturbance between Fernanda and the
depression, and in fact, shows the disturbance merging with the
depression.  The official track forecast, however, discounts this
scenario at this time, and is nudged closer to the model cluster and
the HFIP corrected consensus model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 14.3N 106.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 14.5N 108.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 14.8N 109.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 15.1N 111.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 15.5N 113.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 16.4N 118.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  22/0000Z 16.7N 123.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  23/0000Z 16.5N 128.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts