000
WTPZ42 KNHC 172034
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017
300 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Although there has been some increase in the overall amount of deep
convection associated with the system, the center has become a
little more separated from the primary convective mass due to
moderate to strong northwesterly shear.  Satellite intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB support maintaining an intensity of
30 kt for this advisory.  The moderate to strong shear is expected
to decrease within the next 12 to 24 hours, which should provide an
opportunity for some strengthening.  The latest global model
guidance suggests that the shear could become quite low in 36 to 48
hours, which could result in some additional intensification.
However, the NHC forecast remains a little more conservative since
the cyclone must survive its current encounter with the shear to
take advantage of the potentially more favorable environment in a
couple of days.  In about 72 hours, southwesterly shear is foreast
to increase as the cyclone begins moving over cooler waters.  These
environmental factors should cause weakening later in the period and
the NHC forecast calls for the system to become a remnant low by day
5.

The initial motion is 275/7 kt, a little faster than before. The
overall forecast track reasoning is unchanged from the previous
advisory.  The depression is expected to move westward to west-
northwestward to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends
westward from northern Mexico.  The track guidance has come into a
little better agreement at 72 h and beyond, with the latest ECMWF
and GFS runs converging toward the previous NHC track.  The updated
NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and once again is close
to the HFIP corrected consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 14.1N 106.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 14.3N 107.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 14.6N 108.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 15.0N 110.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 15.5N 112.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 16.4N 117.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  21/1800Z 17.0N 122.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  22/1800Z 17.0N 127.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown