000
WTPZ42 KNHC 011435
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022017
1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 01 2017

Tropical Depression Two-E has become a little less organized since
the previous advisory.  The central convection has decreased
somewhat, with the primary convection now in a large band over the
southeastern semicircle.  In addition, visible imagery suggests that
the low-level circulation is becoming less well defined.  While
satellite intensity estimates are at tropical storm strength, the
initial intensity will remain 30 kt based on the decay in the cloud
pattern and continuity from the previous advisory.

While no intensification has occurred since yesterday, there is
still potential for the system to become a tropical storm before
landfall.  After landfall, the low-level circulation should
dissipate by 36 h over the mountains of Mexico.  The large-scale
models suggest that disturbed weather could occur over the western
Gulf of Mexico during the next few days in association with the
remnants of the depression.

Recent microwave imagery has helped better locate the center, and
the initial motion is 020/5. Southwesterly flow to the east of a
broad mid- to upper-level trough over northwestern Mexico should
steer the cyclone generally northeastward through landfall and
dissipation.  The new forecast track is similar to, but slightly
slower than the previous track.

Heavy rains, flash flooding, and mudslides continue to be the
biggest threats from this system, and Puerto Angel, Mexico, has
reported more than 6 inches of rain since yesterday.  Given the
potential for the depression to become a tropical storm, the
Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the coast of southeastern
Mexico remains in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 15.4N  97.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 16.0N  96.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  02/1200Z 16.9N  96.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven