000
WTPZ42 KNHC 311445
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022017
1000 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017

The low pressure area located to the southeast of Acapulco, Mexico,
has developed multiple bands of deep convection, and various
satellite data suggest the system has a well-defined circulation.
Based on these, the system is designated as Tropical Depression
Two-E.  The initial intensity of 25 kt is based on current
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB along with earlier
scatterometer data.

The initial motion is 035/3.  A mid- to upper-level trough seen in
water vapor imagery over northern Mexico is expected to steer the
cyclone slowly northeastward for the next 36 h or so.  After
that, there is significant divergence in the track guidance.  The
GFS, Canadian, and HWRF models move the cyclone inland over
southeastern Mexico in 48-60 h, while the ECMWF and UKMET show the
system stalling over the Pacific as a weak mid-level ridge builds
to the north.  The latter part of the track forecast somewhat
splits the difference between these two solutions, showing the
cyclone remaining over the Pacific but closer to the coast of
Mexico than forecast by the ECMWF and UKMET.

The depression is in an environment of 10-15 kt of southerly
vertical wind shear, and the large-scale models suggests that this
condition should persist for the next 36-48 h.  After that, while
the shear may decrease the cyclone is likely to be close enough to
the mountains of southern Mexico to inhibit development.  The
intensity forecast, which lies near the upper edge of the intensity
guidance, calls for slow strengthening for the first 48 h followed
by little change in strength through the remainder of the forecast
period.

The forecast track, intensity, and wind radii require a Tropical
Storm Watch for a portion of the coast of Mexico at this time.
However, heavy rains and freshwater flooding are likely to be the
biggest threats from this system even if it makes landfall as a
tropical storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/1500Z 13.9N  97.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 14.2N  97.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 14.6N  97.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 14.9N  97.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 15.1N  96.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 15.5N  96.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 15.5N  97.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 15.5N  98.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven