000
WTPZ42 KNHC 300233
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 29 2013

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH RAYMOND HAS DECREASED AGAIN THIS
EVENING AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO FEEL THE IMPACT OF 25-30 KT OF
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  A RECENT TRMM OVERPASS SUGGESTS
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME ELONGATED WITH POSSIBLE
MULTIPLE VORTICITY CENTERS.  SINCE THERE IS NO DATA FROM THE
CYCLONE CORE AND THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT.  THIS COULD BE GENEROUS
GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/6.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A
TOUCH FASTER THAN...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

A COMBINATION OF STRONG SHEAR...DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD CAUSE RAYMOND TO
DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT CONVECTION WILL RE-DEVELOP DURING THE
MORNING DIURNAL MAXIMUM AND SLOW THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.  IF
THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN...RAYMOND SHOULD DISSIPATE FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 19.1N 116.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 19.8N 115.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  31/0000Z 20.4N 115.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  31/1200Z 20.8N 115.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  01/0000Z 21.0N 115.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN