000
WTPZ42 KNHC 290834
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 29 2013
 
THE RAPID WEAKENING OF RAYMOND APPEARS TO HAVE TEMPORARILY SLOWED
THIS MORNING AS A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE
DATA REVEALS THAT THE CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS DUE TO 25-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FINAL-T AND
CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT MAINTAINING
AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 50 KT.  THE WEAKENING PROCESS SHOULD RESUME
SHORTLY AND CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE RAYMOND
REMAINS IN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MOVES OVER DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. 

RECENT CENTER FIXES FROM SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT
RAYMOND IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES
BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
MEXICO AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. 
THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IS
RATHER WEAK...SO ONCE RAYMOND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM IT IS
FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY.  THE NEW NHC
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCE
CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 17.6N 117.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 18.3N 116.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 19.2N 116.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 19.8N 115.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/0600Z 20.0N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/0600Z 20.0N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN