000
WTPZ42 KNHC 290241
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
800 PM PDT MON OCT 28 2013

RAYMOND IS SHOWING THE AFFECTS OF 25-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR.  THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS DECREASED DURING THE
EVENING...WITH THE REMAINING CONVECTION NOW IN A RAGGED BAND ABOUT
50-80 N MI FROM THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANT.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF FINAL-T AND
CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AS WELL AS CONTINUITY
FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/5.  RAYMOND IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN
END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A LARGE
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE ADJACENT
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC.  WHILE RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR APART...
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO KEEP RAYMOND
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 
THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE FORWARD SPEED...WITH THE ECMWF AND
GFS AGAIN BEING FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS.  THE NEW FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF AND GFS.
 
THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES RAYMOND INTO INCREASING SHEAR...OVER COLDER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND INTO DRIER AIR.  THE CYCLONE IS THUS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND
TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS DISSIPATING BY 96 HOURS...AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 17.2N 117.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 17.9N 116.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 18.9N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 19.6N 115.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  31/0000Z 20.1N 114.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/0000Z 20.5N 114.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN