000 WTPZ42 KNHC 281438 TCDEP2 HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 800 AM PDT MON OCT 28 2013 SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY NEAR RAYMOND...AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL...AND A BLEND OF FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE ADT SUPPORT AN ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 75 KT. RAYMOND WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF EVEN STRONGER SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND DRIER AIR...ALL OF WHICH SHOULD CONSPIRE TO CONTINUE A QUICK WEAKENING TREND DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE INTENSITY MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING A FAIRLY PRECIPITOUS DECREASE IN WINDS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A BIT TO REFLECT THIS TREND. RAYMOND WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 2 TO 3 DAYS AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 5. RAYMOND IS MOVING NORTHWARD...OR 355/6 KT...THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR HAWAII. THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE EXTENDS DOWN INTO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...SO EVEN AS RAYMOND WEAKENS...THE SURFACE CIRCULATION SHOULD STILL MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD...ALBEIT MORE SLOWLY DUE TO WEAKER STEERING CURRENTS. THERE IS RELATIVELY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK MODELS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AND THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 16.4N 117.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 17.2N 116.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 18.0N 116.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 18.7N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 19.2N 115.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 20.0N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z 20.0N 115.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG