000 WTPZ42 KNHC 280846 TCDEP2 HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 200 AM PDT MON OCT 28 2013 THE EYE OF RAYMOND IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY... HOWEVER A LARGE AREA OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS IS STILL PRESENT IN A CDO FEATURE...MAINLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS HAVE BEGUN TO COME DOWN A BIT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 85 KT. UW-CIMSS SATELLITE ANALYSES AND THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATE ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING RAYMOND...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR... COOLER SSTS...AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND MORE RAPID WEAKENING AFTER THAT TIME. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...AND SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF RAYMOND DECOUPLING FROM THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BY 48 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS. RAYMOND SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 3 ...AND DISSIPATE IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. THE CENTER OF RAYMOND HAS BEEN MORE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SINCE THE EYE DISAPPEARED...BUT THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED NORTHWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 350/07. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. RAYMOND SHOULD SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH APPROACHES THE CYCLONE. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS...AS RAYMOND WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THAT PERIOD. AFTER 48 HOURS THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE INCREASES...AND THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE MOTION...ASSUMING THAT RAYMOND WILL BE A SHALLOW SYSTEM MEANDERING IN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE INITIAL AND FORECAST 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED BASED ON DATA FROM ASCAT-A AND ASCAT-B PASSES OVER RAYMOND AT 0444Z AND 0538Z...RESPECTIVELY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 16.0N 116.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 16.7N 117.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 17.5N 117.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 18.2N 116.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 18.6N 116.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 31/0600Z 19.0N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z 19.0N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN