000
WTPZ42 KNHC 272031
TCDEP2
 
HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013
 
RAYMOND HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...WITH THE EYE CLEARING OUT IN
VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND T4.8/85 KT FROM
THE ADT AT 18Z...AND GIVEN THAT THE PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED EVEN IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
RAISED TO THE UPPER BOUND OF THE ESTIMATES.  RAYMOND SHOULD BE ABLE
TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO
BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES TO ABOUT 20 KT.  AFTER THAT
TIME...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY MORE RAPID WEAKENING WHEN THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES MORE HOSTILE.  SINCE RAYMOND STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...THE DEEP-LAYER STEERING SHOULD ALLOW IT
TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH THAN INDICATED IN EARLIER FORECASTS. 
IRONICALLY...THIS WILL MOVE THE CYCLONE INTO A HIGHER-SHEAR AND
LOWER-SST ENVIRONMENT MORE QUICKLY...AND THE NEW NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST NOW SHOWS A MORE SUDDEN DROP OFF IN THE WIND FORECAST
AFTER 36 HOURS.  RAYMOND COULD BE A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND
DISSIPATED BY DAY 5.  MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FOLLOWS THIS
GENERAL SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
RAYMOND APPEARS TO BE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD NOW THAT THE LARGE
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA IS SHUNTING THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EASTWARD OVER MEXICO.  THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS NOW 305/8 KT...AND THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD
BY 24-36 HOURS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH.  ONCE ALL THE
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED AWAY IN A FEW DAYS...THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS LIKELY TO DRIFT NORTHWARD OR BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING.  THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES TO THE EAST OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE IN DEFERENCE TO THE GFS...ECMWF...AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 14.5N 116.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 15.2N 117.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 16.4N 117.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 17.3N 117.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 17.9N 116.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 18.5N 116.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  31/1800Z 18.5N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG